40% Leaving? Startling Numbers Behind LDS Disaffiliation (Jeff Strong 1 of 4)

Is the LDS Church actually shrinking? We’re talking about LDS disaffiliation with Jeff Strong, author of the new book Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them. While official membership records show steady growth, the reality of active participation tells a much more complex story. In this episode, I’ll sit down with Jeff to break down the startling data behind modern disaffiliation.

Don’t miss our other conversations Jeff: https://gospeltangents.com/people/jeff-strong

Gospel Tangents

Key highlights from this conversation include:

The 40% Figure:

Jeff discusses why multiple national studies—including Pew Research (46%) and the Harvard Cooperative Election Study—consistently peg LDS disaffiliation in the 40% to mid-40% range over the last 25 years.

LDS Disaffiliation

The “Leaky Bucket” Phenomenon: Despite a 60% increase in members of record since the year 2000, the number of actual wards has only grown by about 11%. Jeff explains the math of how converts and children are “entering the bucket” while current members are “leaking out” at an unprecedented rate.

“Not Since Kirtland”

Drawing on a famous quote from former church historian Marlon Jensen, Jeff explores why the current wave of departures is being compared to the historic crisis in 1830s Ohio

Corporate-Level Research:

Jeff brings his background as a global executive for Johnson & Johnson and Proctor & Gamble to the table, using a team of PhDs and former church researchers to ensure his findings are as accurate and defensible as possible.

Modest Real Growth vs. Decline:

While some claim the church is in an absolute free-fall, Jeff’s data suggests modest real growth over the long term, though some analysts believe the church in the U.S. may have hit a point of slight decline for the first time very recently.

This episode is a must-watch for anyone trying to understand the statistical reality of the modern LDS experience and why the “sky isn’t falling,” but the fire is certainly “hot enough to burn down our houses.”

Chapters

0:00 Meet Jeff Strong
2:42 LDS Research Team
6:26 Do 40% of Active Mormons Leave?
20:26 Stratified but Not Representative Survey

Don’t miss our other conversations Jeff: https://gospeltangents.com/people/jeff-strong

Gospel Tangents

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